USDJPY is trading near 142.30 on Friday, as markets digest inflation data and shift focus to the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting. Full breakdown in our 18 April 2025 forecast.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- USDJPY maintains a bearish tone, though range-bound movement is possible today
- Headline inflation in Japan slowed in March, while core prices continue to rise
- USDJPY forecast for 18 April 2025: 141.57
Fundamental analysis
USDJPY is hovering near 142.30 at the end of the week — close to a seven-month low.
Data released today showed Japan’s headline inflation eased to a four-month low of 3.6% in March. However, core inflation rose as expected to 3.2%, reflecting persistent price pressures beneath the surface.
With the inflation report behind, the market now looks ahead to next week’s Bank of Japan policy meeting. The BoJ is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. However, forecasts for economic growth may be downgraded as policymakers assess the risk of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy.
Despite global uncertainty, the BoJ is likely to continue its cautious policy tightening this year, supported by persistent food inflation and rising wages. Nonetheless, the external trade environment adds significant complexity to Japan’s monetary outlook.
The short-term view on USDJPY remains bearish.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart, USDJPY is showing signs of local consolidation between 141.57 and 143.12. This sideways movement aligns with low trading volumes and a wait-and-see approach ahead of next week’s central bank meeting.
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Summary
USDJPY continues to drift lower but is pausing within a consolidation range. Today’s forecast for 18 April 2025 expects the pair to move sideways within the 141.57–143.12 channel as traders weigh inflation data and await signals from the Bank of Japan.