The EURUSD rate reached 1.0500 amid positive sentiment after the German parliamentary elections. Find out more in our analysis for 26 February 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: Germany’s GDP declined by 0.2% in Q4 2024, as expected
- Current trend: consolidating in a sideways range
- EURUSD forecast for 26 February 2025: 1.0400 and 1.0530
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD pair is rising moderately after the conservative Christian Democrats won the German elections. Investors perceived the election outcome positively and are now interested in the details of how the new government plans to stimulate the growth and development of Europe’s largest economy.
Tomorrow, market participants are awaiting US GDP data for Q4 2024 and the report from the latest ECB monetary policy meeting. Investors hope to see hints about the regulator’s further plans: whether the ECB will continue to cut rates or it is poised to pause the monetary policy easing cycle.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair is showing moderate growth, rising to the 1.0500-1.0530 resistance area. Since the beginning of the year, the price has been consolidating in the sideways trading range between 1.0200 and 1.0530. The direction of the price movement out of the range will determine further prospects for the pair’s moves.
The EURUSD forecast for today suggests that the pair could have the potential to climb to 1.0600 and higher if the bulls overcome the 1.0500-1.0530 resistance area. However, if the bears seize the initiative and reverse the quotes downwards, the pair could plunge to the 1.0400 support level.
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Summary
The EURUSD quotes are rising moderately, having climbed to the crucial resistance area between 1.0500 and 1.0530. Market participants are awaiting tomorrow’s US GDP statistics for Q4 2024 and the report from the latest ECB meeting.