Gold is under pressure but holds above crucial support level

XAUUSD price fell below 2,500 USD on Tuesday but stayed above the significant 2,470-2,480 USD support area. The market will focus on US employment data on Thursday and Friday. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 4 September 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants await US employment statistics at the end of the week
• Current trend: although gold is trading within an uptrend, there are risks of a downward correction
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 September 2024: 2,532 and 2,470

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are trading within an uptrend, supported by the beginning of US Federal Reserve monetary policy easing. However, gold has yet to reach the all-time high of 2,532 USD, as it encounters active selling pressure near this level. The US employment market statistics due Thursday and Friday may influence future asset movements.

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) will publish employment data on Thursday, while nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released on Friday. A decline in employment could weaken the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, job growth could support the US dollar and push XAUUSD into a downward correction.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is undergoing a downward correction after falling below 2,500 USD. However, the price remains above the upper boundary of a triangle pattern, which coincides with the crucial 2,470-2,480 USD support area.

The short-term XAUUSD price forecast suggests that the price could rise as high as 2,532 USD if bulls hold above the triangle’s upper boundary and return the price to an area above 2,500 USD. A drop below the crucial 2,470-2,480 USD support area would invalidate this scenario and could lead to a decline towards the 2,450 USD area and lower.

Summary

XAUUSD quotes dipped below 2,500 USD but have so far managed to hold above the crucial 2,470-2,480 USD support area. On Thursday and Friday, market participants will focus on US employment data, which may impact gold’s price movements.